Speculations about Iphone Europe carrier

There is a lot of buzz around apple Iphone: Apple wants a single operator on every continent, and this can effectively work in the US, since, iphone is a GSM phone and so only available through cingular/AT&T, all the others relying on CDMA.
In Europe, this will be more difficult, since every operator is using GSM standard: there are some talks between Apple - Orange and Apple - Vodaphone and some other.
So, who will be chosen by Apple?
Orange ? Vodaphone ? another one ?

Vodaphone is present worldwide, as Verizon in the US.
Orange has strong links with Cingular since 2005, to buy large amont of phones and drop the prices for the 2 companies. This is already a small clue.

Another aspect is technical: as iphone targets travellers (Google map and GPS), it should be easy for Iphone users to travel with their iphone. Obviously if you buy an iphone in Europe you would like it to work in... the US for example. So Apple chosen carrier in Europe should be able to use iphone in the US.
Let's make an assumption: Vodaphone is chosen by Apple. Vodaphone's partner carrier in the US is Verizon, since, it is the same company. So iphones purchased in Europe should be able to work on Verizon network in the US, this means that European Iphones should be able to work on CDMA networks, and so anyone living in the US could be able to by a European Iphone to operate on any network in the US. Apple would noot like it, and moreover, this infringes the deal between Cingular and Apple: there would be no exclusivity anymore. If Vodaphone wants to be chosen by Apple in Europe, it should negociate with Cingular to use their GSM network in the US. Do you really think Cingular will help Vodaphone, and so Verizon in the US market, to gain more money in Europe and be able to be more agressive in the US market?

That is why I think Vodaphone has no chance to be chosen by Apple in Europe.

On the other hand Orange has a partnership with Cingular, I don't think Orange threatens Cingular on the US market (or there would be no partnership between them). But in Europe, Apple can choose any carrier (except Vodaphone): all the networks can interoperate, since they all comply, at least, with GSM standard. Moreover, if you buy a locked GSM phone in a European country you can use it in another country with another SIM card.
The only possible mean to refrain cross European traffic of Iphones would be to limit access to some software functionalities by forbidding their implementation on concurrent European GSM networks, and this lead to a problem for frequent travelers...

Apple recently told that the Iphone won't be able to use CDMA for the next 5 years, it looks like a confirmation of my speculations.